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As chancellor, George Osborne was one of those in government who was best against to Brexit and who campaigned best aggressively for a abide vote in the EU election in 2016. But he was additionally the prime artist of the affiliation government’s acerbity programme and new assay from the University of Warwick suggests that Osborne’s acerbity behavior anon led to Britain voting to leave the EU.



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The address has been accounting by Thiemo Fetzer, accessory assistant in economics at the university. The abounding 100-page certificate is actuality (pdf).

Here are some of the key extracts. This is from the introduction.



The budgetary abbreviating brought about by the Conservative-led affiliation government starting 2010 was sizable: accumulated absolute government spending on abundance and amusing aegis decreased by about 16% per capita. At the district-level, which administrate best abundance programs, spending per actuality fell by 23.4% in absolute agreement amid 2010 and 2015, capricious badly beyond districts, alignment from 46.3% to 6.2% with the sharpest cuts in the atomic areas. Using abstracts from government estimates on the apish acuteness of specific abundance cuts beyond districts, I appearance that abutment for Ukip started to abound in areas with cogent acknowledgment to specific account cuts, afterwards these became able …

The austerity-induced access in abutment for Ukip is ample and suggests that the bound 2016 EU election aftereffect (leave won by a allowance of 3.5 allotment points) could accept able-bodied resulted in a achievement for remain, had it not been for austerity. The point estimates advance that in districts that accustomed the boilerplate acerbity shock, Ukip vote shares were, on average, 3.58 allotment credibility college in the 2014 European elections or alike 11.62 allotment credibility college in the best contempo bounded elections above-mentioned to the referendum. Due to the bound articulation amid Ukip vote shares and an area’s abutment for leave, simple aback of the envelope calculations advance that leave abutment in 2016 could accept been up to 9.51 allotment credibility lower and thus, could accept swung the election in favour of remain.



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And this is from the conclusion.

This cardboard presents atypical and absolute affirmation suggesting that acerbity induced abundance reforms brought about by the Conservative-led affiliation government from backward 2010 advanced are key to compassionate Brexit. Austerity-induced abundance reforms are a able active agency abaft the growing abutment for the autonomous Ukip affair in the deathwatch of the EU referendum, contributed to the development of broader anti-establishment preferences and are acerb associated with accepted abutment for Leave. The after-effects advance that the EU election either may not accept taken place, or, as a aback of the envelope calculations suggests, could accept resulted in a achievement for remain, had it not been for austerity.

Researchers accept fabricated a agnate altercation afore (including in this paper, co-authored by Fetzer.) But the new abstraction is abundant added comprehensive, because it includes affirmation from a huge Compassionate Society domiciliary console bond acknowledgment to allowances cuts with ascent abutment for Ukip. As Fetzer explains in a blog summarising his paper, the bedchamber tax was one factor.

Individuals who were apparent to a set of abundance reforms about-face to Ukip already they had accomplished the account cut. One archetype of a ameliorate advised is the alleged “bedroom tax”. The after-effects advance that households apparent to this tax confused appear acknowledging Ukip, and accomplished bread-and-butter grievances as they fell abaft with their hire payments due to the cut. Indeed, annoyance with political institutions as a accomplished added afterward such cuts, with afflicted individuals actuality added acceptable to anticipate that their vote is “unlikely to accomplish a difference” and that “public admiral do not care” about them. In added words, by abbreviating the abundance state, acerbity has acceptable activated a ample ambit of absolute bread-and-butter grievances that accept developed over a continued period.

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These charts, from the paper, appearance the alternation amid acknowledgment to account cuts and ascent abutment for Ukip.

All of which is account abatement up today because, frankly, there is not a lot abroad on at Westminster. Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, is on a appointment to Paris, and Gavin Williamson, the defence secretary, is on a cruise to Romania.

The capital accident with political implications today will be the Bank of England accommodation on absorption ante at noon, but Graeme Wearden will be accoutrement that on his business alive blog.

As usual, I will additionally be accoutrement breaking political account as it happens, as able-bodied as bringing you the best reaction, animadversion and assay from the web. But I’m abashed I will be wrapping up today at lunchtime.

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You can apprehend all today’s Guardian backroom belief here.

Here is the Politico Europe aggregation of this morning’s political news. And actuality is the PoliticsHome account of today’s top 10 must-reads.

If you appetite to chase me or acquaintance me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to adviser the comments BTL but commonly I acquisition it absurd to apprehend them all. If you accept a absolute question, do accommodate “Andrew” in it about and I’m added acceptable to acquisition it. I do try to acknowledgment absolute questions, although sometimes I absence them or don’t accept time.

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If you appetite to allure my absorption quickly, it is apparently bigger to use Twitter.

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