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WHITE HOUSE FUMBLES ECON MESSAGE — There should be no easier comedy for the Trump White House than touting a absolute able abridgement with low dawdling and fast growth. And yet Admiral Trump’s uncontrollable affection to acclaim what are already acceptable facts with calmly disprovable falsehoods is killing their messaging efforts.
Monday’s problems started with this cheep from Trump: “The GDP Amount (4.2%) is academy than the Unemployment Amount (3.9%) for the aboriginal time in over 100 years!” That’s artlessly not accurate as anyone can analysis aloof by activity to the Fred database here. This phenomena has occurred dozens of times over the aftermost aeon best afresh in 2006. CEA Armchair Kevin Hassett at a White House conference approved to say that Trump artlessly added a aught and meant 10 years, not 100. But it wasn’t ten years ago either.
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And it’s all allotment of arrangement with Trump in which the abridgement charge be absolutely his accomplishing and annihilation to do with Admiral Barack Obama and the best in history (which it isn’t, by a huge stretch.)
Trump additionally tweeted: “If the Democrats had won the Acclamation in 2016, GDP, which was about 1% and activity down, would accept been bare 4% instead of up 4.2%. I opened up our admirable bread-and-butter agent with Regulation and Tax Cuts. Our arrangement was asthmatic and would accept been fabricated worse. Still affluence to do!”
This is additionally demonstrably false. GDP was afterpiece to 2 percent in the fourth division of 2016. And there is no acumen at all to anticipate if Hillary Clinton had won that we would accept gone into the affectionate of aciculate recession that bare 4 percent GDP would indicate. Maybe we would not accept had 3 percent additional from tax cuts and deregulation. But the abridgement has been appreciably abiding for about a decade and that would accept connected no amount who won the White House.
WHY THIS MATTERS — Voters appealing abundant adulation the accepted economy, according to the latest Quinnipiac poll, with 70 percent appraisement it “excellent” or “good.” But it’s not advice into any academy abutment for Trump. The aforementioned poll shows him with aloof a 38 percent approval rating. So White House efforts to accessory Trump and the GOP with the able abridgement is acute to absolute Democratic assets in the midterms.
But if Trump and his admiral are consistently accepting to avert the president’s inaccurate and alien statements, the account gets absent and it alone reinforces the boundless accessible acumen that Trump can’t be trusted. And it’s all so absolutely unnecessary. Trump could artlessly stick to the facts on the abridgement – both the advance amount and the jobs numbers and basic advance – and accept a absolute acceptable adventure to sell.
Some of his admiral like Hassett and NEC Director Larry Kudlow are out there diplomacy it appealing able-bodied but it absolutely doesn’t amount if the guy in the big armchair can’t get it right. Trump doesn’t charge to accomplish actuality up or about-face it into a challenge with Obama. But he’s dealt in outsized superlatives all his activity and that apparently won’t change.
Here’s how Quinnipiac pollster Tim Malloy declared the latest findings: “The abridgement booms, but Admiral Donald Trump’s numbers are a bust. An bloodless 38 percent approval appraisement is circuitous by lows on honesty, backbone and intelligence.”
HASSETT’S CHARTS — You can see all the ones he talked about at the conference in this CEA cheep thread. And he fabricated a able case on advance and aplomb ascent acutely with Trump’s election, admitting some of the added archive don’t appearance as affecting a about-face in trend.
POLITICO’s Tim Noah has added on Hassett here: “The latest affirmation … contradicted the abstracts of best boilerplate economists and appeared to arresting that the Trump White House feels a able abridgement isn’t acceptable acumen to vote Republican in the midterms unless it creates a adverse with Obama. …
“A above Obama administering official countered that basic advance is ascent globally, authoritative it ambiguous that it can be attributed to U.S government policy.The above official additionally puzzled over the charts’ presentation of abstracts as a alternation of six-quarter averages rather than by the accepted admeasurement of a month, a quarter, or a year. ‘They form-shopped what they were doing,’ this actuality said.”
CANADA, WE HAVE A PROBLEM — MM hears from a arch White House official that the administering is not cool addicted of Canadian adopted abbot Chrystia Freeland. Many feel she’s been adamant on analytical dairy issues and taken some arbitrary shots at White House admiral in the press. This actuality said a mutual accord with Mexico that leaves out Canada remained a austere achievability admitting not the adapted outcome.
FREELAND BACK — POLITICO’s Doug Palmer and Sabrina Rodriguez: “Freeland will acknowledgment to Washington on Tuesday for added high-level talks on a North American barter pact, as the White House still hopes to abutting a three-way deal. Admiral are aiming to ability a advance by the end of the ages to add Canada to the new NAFTA framework that the U.S. and Mexico formed out.
“Freeland’s agent today accepted high-level talks set for Tuesday, but it charcoal cryptic if she will break in Washington all week. A backer for the Office of the U.S. Barter Representative said the affair is tentatively appointed to alpha at 11 a.m.” Read more.
** A account from the Cyberbanking Services Forum: Large, adapted cyberbanking institutions are a primary antecedent of all chump loans, acknowledging lending for a array of domiciliary needs such as diplomacy cars and advantageous for college. Forum associates ascendancy added than $4 abundance in loans, accounting for 43 percent of absolute lending to businesses and households. Learn more. **
EXPECT ANOTHER NFIB SMALL BIZ RECORD TODAY — Pantheon’s Ian Shepherdson: “If you had alone the NFIB analysis of baby businesses as your adviser to the accompaniment of the business sector, you’d be acquiescently blind that the bread-and-butter commentariat appropriate now is bedeviled with the abeyant hit from the barter tariffs, absolute and threatened.
“The banderole affect basis rose to a almanac aerial in July—the analysis has been active back October 1974—and the allowance favor a added access in the August report, due today. … It’s accessible that business owners anticipate the broader tariffs threatened by the administering won’t materialize, and that acumen ability be wrong. But it’s additionally accessible that their businesses are accomplishing so able-bodied that they anticipate the appulse of tariffs would not actively accident their performance.”
VULNERABLE REPUBLICANS BALK AT MORE TAX CUTS — POLITICO’s Nancy Cook and Bernie Becker: “The White House and top aldermanic Republicans appetite to advance for a House vote on a additional annular of tax cuts advanced of the midterms in hopes of bolstering their bread-and-butter angle to voters — but they’re active into action aural their own party.
“GOP leaders conceived of the additional tax bill as a messaging win that would put Democrats on their heels advanced of the midterms, banishment them to vote adjoin tax abatement for the average class. But the apropos over the bill are abundantly abounding from the Republican side, mainly from associates angry to accumulate ascendancy of seats in burghal districts area … Trump is best abhorred — and that are key to the GOP’s hopes of befitting their majority.” Read more.
Trump can’t get bread-and-butter facts straight. | AP Photo
POLITICS IN 60 SECONDS — Catch my latest video for GZeroMedia actuality breaking bottomward the better belief in backroom for you in beneath a minute.
GOOD TUESDAY MORNING — Once afresh we bethink all those absent on that abominable day 17 years ago. Hard to accept it’s been that long. Email me on [email protected] and chase me on Cheep @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on [email protected] and chase her on Cheep @AubreeEWeaver.
DRIVING THE DAY — Admiral Trump will beam the Sept. 11 commemoration with a commemoration for the ballsy victims of the United Flight 93 blast in Pennsylvania … NFIB Analysis at 6:00 a.m. accepted to acceleration to 108.2 from 107.9.
TEN YEARS LATER — NYT’s Andrew Ross Sorkin echoes some of the aforementioned capacity we hit in MM on Monday on the long-tail appulse of the crisis: “The crisis was a moment that broken our country. It bankrupt a amusing arrangement amid the plutocrats and anybody else. But it additionally bankrupt a faculty of trust, not aloof in cyberbanking institutions and the government that oversaw them, but in the absolute abstraction of experts and expertise. The accomplished 10 years accept apparent an accessible defection adjoin the intelligentsia.
“Mistrust led to new political movements: the Tea Affair for those who didn’t assurance the government and Occupy Wall Street for those who didn’t assurance big business. These confused Democrats and Republicans abroad from anniversary added in axiological ways, and autonomous attitudes on both ends of the spectrum activate champions in the 2016 presidential chase in Senator Bernie Sanders and Donald J. Trump.” Read more.
Also from Sorkin: “Too Big to Fail is actuality reissued this commemoration with a new afterword that does a abounding accounting of aggregate that’s happened in the accomplished 10 years and draws access amid today’s culture, backroom and abridgement with the connected reverberations of the crisis.”
On Wednesday, Andrew has a 1 hour doc airing on CNBC at 10pm EDT with all the assembly annual the crisis: Paulson, Geithner, Dimon, Buffett, Mack, Thain, Pandit, etc…
FLORENCE STRENGTHENS — Governors in the Carolinas and Virginia ordered boundless littoral evacuations as Hurricane Florence adequate and threatened angry apprehension and potentially canicule of rain and flooding.
INSURANCE SHARES SINK — FT’s Peter Wells: “Insurance shares took a hit on Monday as admiral warned on the ‘potentially catastrophic’ appulse of Hurricane Florence, a above storm that could hit the east coffer of the US as aboriginal as Thursday. But the likelihood of the rebuilding accomplishment that could chase such a storm propped up home advance companies such as Home Depot and Lowe’s.
“The Civic Hurricane Center upgraded Florence to a class 4 storm on Monday and declared it as an ‘large and acutely alarming hurricane’. Abstracts showed its best abiding wind acceleration at 140 afar per hour (220km per hour) and the NHC said added deepening was anticipated. A ‘life-threatening storm surge’ is acceptable forth portions of the coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia, the NHC said, with a storm billow watch acceptable to be issued for some of these areas by Tuesday.” Read more.
LIGHTHIZER EYES NEW EU TRADE DEAL — POLITICO’s Doug Palmer: “U.S. Barter Representative Robert Lighthizer seemed to advance on Monday that the Trump administering hopes to accommodate a barter acceding with the European Union that would be charge to submitted to Congress for approval, afterwards the admiral and European Commission Admiral Jean-Claude Juncker accomplished a acting accord in July on barter tensions.
“In the abbreviate term, the U.S. hopes to ability a quick accord with the European Union to boldness assertive abstruse barriers to trade, Lighthizer said afterwards his affair with EU Barter Commissioner Cecilia Malmström. ‘We attending advanced to anniversary affair advancing their calm processes for negotiating mandates,’ Lighthizer said in a statement. ‘USTR will activate consultations with Congress pursuant to barter advance ascendancy to facilitate negotiations on longer-term outcomes.’” Read more.
ROSS IN BRUSSELS — POLITICO’s Megan Cassella and Hans von der Burchard: “Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is traveling to Brussels this commemoration for a alternation of diplomacy with government admiral and private-sector assembly to altercate barter and competition. Ross will ascendancy abstracted diplomacy with European Commission Vice Admiral Jyrki Katainen and European Commissioner for Antagonism Margrethe Vestager, an EU agent told POLITICO. It was not anon bright whether he will accommodated with … Malmström.” Read more.
U.S. BANK LAUNCHES SMALL DOLLAR LOANS — POLITICO’s Victoria Guida: “U.S. Coffer … appear it is ablution a small-dollar accommodation artefact for its blockage annual customers, who will be able to booty out chapter loans of $100 to $1,000. The product, ‘Simple Loan,’ comes in the deathwatch of a May account from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which in a above about-face encouraged banks to action chapter loans.
“U.S. Coffer says it’s the aboriginal civic coffer to action small-dollar loans structured this way.Borrowers will be appropriate to accord in three anchored payments over three months. Anniversary chump can access alone one accommodation at a time and will face a 30-day cat-and-mouse aeon afterwards claim afore he or she can administer for addition loan” Read more.
TRADE WAR BOOSTS YUAN USE — Karen Yeung in the South China Morning Post: “The barter war accomplished by the United States is absolutely allowance China accomplish one of its coveted abiding cyberbanking goals — the greater use of its currency, the yuan, in all-embracing business and cyberbanking transactions.
“As of the end of the additional quarter, across institutional and alone backing of yuan-denominated cyberbanking assets totaled 4.9 abundance yuan ($717 billion), according to ICBC International, the Hong Kong advance cyberbanking arm of Industrial and Commercial Coffer of China, one the country’s big four banks. Aural that total, the allotment of yuan-denominated stocks and bonds as a allotment of absolute assets captivated by all-around investors added to about 2.5 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” Read more.
TRACKING 2155 — Per the ICBA: “As the Senate Cyberbanking Committee prepares to apprehend from regulators on Thursday about the accomplishing of the S. 2155, we basic to accomplish abiding you saw our new S. 2155 accomplishing matrix.”
TRANSITIONS — Per release: “Protective Activity Corporation is admiring to advertise that Mary Pat Lawrence has abutting the Company as Arch Vice President, Government Affairs, able September 10. In this position, Lawrence will comedy an active role in Protective’s accompaniment and federal aldermanic affairs, as able-bodied as authoritative matters.”
** A account from the Cyberbanking Services Forum: The Cyberbanking Services Forum is an bread-and-butter action and advancement accumulation whose associates are the arch controlling admiral of the eight better and best adapted cyberbanking institutions headquartered in the United States. Forum affiliate institutions are a arch antecedent of lending and advance in the United States and serve millions of consumers, businesses, investors, and communities throughout the country. Our institutions accept essentially bigger their basic and clamminess positions, and authoritative and authoritative changes in the accomplished decade accept added added their resiliency and resolvability. Forum institutions accept added their basic by 40 percent and accept added than angled their high-quality aqueous assets during the accomplished decade, putting them in a able position to abutment U.S. workers and businesses. Learn added about the Forum and how our members’ 1 actor advisers serve our abridgement and communities. Chase us on Cheep @fsforum, LinkedIn, and online at: www.fsforum.com. **
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