Army Memo Page 13 Ten Unconventional Knowledge About Army Memo Page 13 That You Can’t Learn From Books
In mid-October of aftermost year, PresidentTrump’s adjustment to leave the Syrian breadth as bound as accessible led theRussian aggressive to bound bushing the abandoned larboard by the U.S. forces.
Certainly some U.S. appropriate armament arestill operational, but the cardinal aim is acutely lacking.
On the bend of the 32kilometre corridorfrom the bound band amid Turkey and Syria, Bashar al-Assad’s army nowcontrols Manbiji, at the alpha of the absorber breadth requested by Turkey, upto Ayn Issa, Tel Amer and Qamishli.
Below this band there are abandoned the YPG andPKK Kurds, of whom it is difficult, in fact, to abstracted and analyze themilitancy.
When Assad regained ascendancy of North-EastSyria, with the absolute Russian help, President Putin was still on a diplomatictour amid Saudi Arabia and the Emirates.
To say the least, none of the UStraditional Sunni allies has appreciated the fast US acceptance and Turkey’s diff acceding with the UnitedStates. In fact, this is absolutely the way in which the Syrian and Kurdish policyfollowed by the United States and Turkey has been interpreted by Saudi Arabiaand the Emirates.
The Sunni admiral attention Turkey as adangerous ancillary aftereffect of the Muslim Brotherhood – and this holds accurate at leastfor Saudi Arabia – or additionally as a geopolitical agrarian agenda – and this applies tothe Emirates.
This holds accurate additionally for the countries,like Qatar, which accept consistently been absorbed accompany of the Ikhwan, namely theMuslim Brotherhood.
Hostile to God and to his enemies – thisis the approaching of the Turkish all-around strategy, abstruseness sic stantibus. Either it binds itself to Russia, beneath itsterms and conditions, or it charcoal abandoned in the new Greater Middle East, bynow beggared of abutment from the United States.
TheSunnis who count, namely those of the Arabian Peninsula, and Al Jazeera haveunderstood the U.S. countermelody and are already attractive for new allies. Theycannot accomplish on their own and appropriately Russia sets in.
“Russia is my additional home” – asPrince Mohammed bin Zayed from the absolutism cardinal in Abu Dhabi has cleverlystated – but the abandonment of U.S. soldiers ordered by President Trump isreally a strategic, moral and actual axis point.
TheKurds, betrayed in no time by the United States, accept anon negotiatedand accomplished a acceptable acceding with Assad, advised abandoned by Russia and organizedabove all by the Shiite factions of the Kurdish nation, present abnormally inIraq and with accomplished relations with Iran.
Syria, i.e. the abode breadth Turkey wants toenter so as to abstain the cardinal articulation amid Syrian Kurds, Anatolian Kurdsand Iraqi Kurds – which would aggregate a Kurdish State able ofannihilating the blow of the ethnically Turkish citizenry – needs an accessory thatcan “keep close and alive” (as Machiavelli said with advertence toFrance) Syria as a solid unitary entity, Kurds included.
President Putin still wants to break inSyria, because he hopes that, in the future, Turkey will leave NATO and becomea Russian borderline ally. Is it an absurd dream? Not necessarily so.
Turkey may additionally attach to Russia’sproject: the Atlantic Alliance is now the bones of a war which concluded seventyyears ago and which has never accurate Turkey except in the continued alternation ofmilitary coups in 1961, 1980 and afresh in 1997. Finally, in the alteration of theguard that saw all the NATO Mediterranean countries adios their cardinal classes,Turkey had to face the AKP, a affair reborn from the ashes of an Islamistorganization that had been banned by the Turkish Constitutional Court.
TheMuslim Brotherhood, acting as US agents – additionally back Hillary Clinton wasSecretary of State – to “bring democracy”, i.e. its owndemocracy, throughout the Islamic world.A masterpiece in reverse.
Currently, afterwards the end of the “ColdWar”, abandoned those who can be blackmailed acceleration to power. Appropriately the transferof ability in Italy, in the Middle East, but additionally in Latin America and alike inAsia.
Briefly President Putin currently wantsTurkey to leave NATO to start collaboration with Russia in Central Asia and, aloft all, in the greatfuture business of pipelines from Asia to Europe.
The “Middle Corridor” – iforganized by Turkey – favours the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative.
There is additionally the Baku-Tbilisi-Karsrailway opened in October 2017, as able-bodied as Turkmenistan’s anchorage on the CaspianSea, congenital by Turkish companies carefully affiliated to the Turkish Presidency, whichhas been operational back 2018.
As aboriginal as 1992, the Western admiral haveconveyed the bulletin to Turkey that it abandoned needs to become the civil Sunnirampart adjoin Iran.
In 1993 Turkey additionally founded the Alliancefor Turkish Culture while, in 2009, the Turkish administration accustomed theCooperation Council of the Turkic Speaking States.
Now Turkey’s primary abstraction is to be a“central power” that, however, operates advisedly in Asia and, in anycase, alfresco the interests of the Atlantic Alliance.
This is absolutely what Vladimir Putin brand about it.
The Turkish activity mix, however, is linkedto accustomed gas. Turkey imports it from Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran.
Ifthe Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline Project (TANAP) is implemented, Turkey’senergy affiliation from Central Asian countries would be considerately moreimportant than the old articulation with the USA and NATO.
Hence Russia could be a absolute trump cardfor Turkey.
President Putin, however, has favoured theconnection and operational advice amid Assad’s armament and the“Turkmen” militias affiliated to Turkey.
There is no approach of advice thatRussia does not ascendancy in the Greater Middle East.
After all, if you allowance war in the MiddleEast adjoin a Western-style “villain” archetypal of comics, the abandoned accessible aftereffect is thatyour assignment is done by the old enemy.
There is additionally the Iraqi affront whichconcerns corruption, disability and government irrelevance.
Sofar the assessment has been 200 victims, with at atomic 6,000 afflicted people.
It is said that Iran has supplied snipersto hit the crowd, but there is no affirmation about it.
TheAsaib ahl-Al haq militia, i.e. the Shiite arrangement of Al Ghazali that has already operated in Syria, was seenoperating additionally in Iraq and generally had to face able abrogating reactions from thelocal population.
Meanwhile, Russia is extensive agreements withall Middle East countries acutely absorption on energy, but additionally on the media –and aloft all TV–as able-bodied as on basement and the Armed Forces.
In January 2019 Russian Foreign MinisterLavrov hosted his Iraqi counterpart, Mohammed Alì al-Hakim.
Russian advance in Iraq has recentlyexceeded 10 billion US dollars, while Russia has annulled an old Iraqi debt of12.2 billion US dollars in barter for a new 4 billion US dollar oil contract,which provides Russia with theopportunity of starting to accomplishment West-Qurna 2, one of the better oil fieldsin the world.
Lukoil and Gazprom Neft clearly enteredthe Iraqi Kurdistan’s oil bazaar in 2012, appropriately paving the way for abounding newcontracts.
Russia has additionally anon fundedKurdistan’s government, with a 3.5 billion US dollar loan, which will be repaidwith the oil awash to Russia’s Rosneft as anon as possible.
InOctober 2013 Russia awash to the Kurdish apple in Iraq and Syria 4.3 billion USdollars in weapons to alter the Iraqi ones. These funds accomplish the KurdishRojava free from Iraq, alike strategically.
Theold intelligence operational centre amid Russia, Iran and Syria -opened byRussia in Iraq – is still actual active.
Now it additionally carries out geoeconomicoperations.
InSeptember 2018, additionally the Iraqi-Russian Cultural Centre in Baghdad – bankrupt bottomward in 2003 – was reopened.
In Iraq, however, Russia never wants tocompete with Iran. Moreover,Iran and Iraq assignment actual able-bodied additionally with China.
There are 1.7 billion dollars of barter betweenIraq and the Russian Federation, which awning the 30 actor US dollars of debtthat Iraq still holds with China.
OnOctober 21, 2019, President Putin accustomed Erdogan in Sochi and, afterwards sevenhours of discussion, the Turkish-Russian mutual plan has been such as tofurther abate the U.S. role, while the Russian one is accretion significantly.
All this is a assiduity of the meetingbetween Russia, Turkey and Iran held inAstana on September 16 last.
Russia wants to abate the Iraniansecurity armament still present in Syria, by application both Iranian aloofness aboutthe Syrian acquisition of Idlib and Iran’s acceptable addiction to abide – withits armament – on the bound amid Iran and Syria and to operate, aloft all, infavour of the aisle amid the Iranian Shiite basic and Southern Lebanon.
Russia has not abundant absorption in it.
Moreover,the Russian Federation wants Turkey to bound conciliate its jihadist militias inIdlib, decidedly Hayat Ahrir al-Sham, so as to accomplish its accessory Bashar al-Assadachieve abounding controlof the Afrin area, the key point of the North Syrian borderand, aloft all, of the aggressive accord amid Turkey and Syria.
With a appearance to counterbalancing thisdisagreement with Turkey, Iraq and possibly Iran, Russia is alive onagreements with the best important Sunni leadership.
Theissue is abundant wider: back aboriginal August 2019 the Lebanon and Iraq accept been anintegral allotment of the “Astana process”.
Russia has additionally proposed a tripartiteagreement amid the Lebanon, Syria and Russia for the sole repatriation ofSyrian refugees. If Iraq manages to carve out a aboveboard role as mediatorbetween Iran and Saudi Arabia, Russia could actualize a approaching duopoly with Iraqin Syria, so as to abstain the Iranian “mortmain” and the jihadist andSunni burden on the borders of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
It should not assume aberrant that the othertrump agenda of the Russian Federation is Egypt and the Emirates.
It is by no bald accompaniment that allthese countries accept reopened diplomaticchannels with Syria.
Russia angle Egypt as a reliable partnerin Syria, additionally because the long-standingsupport provided by Egypt to Assad.
There is additionally the “Dialogue two additional two” amid Egypt andRussia, an acceding amid both countries’ Defence and Foreign Ministries.
Incidentally, this acceding is acutely asvalid for Syria as it is for Libya.
In the abreast future, Egypt will directlysupport the Russian contractors afresh fabricated operational in Cirenaica and inthe Libyan Fezzan.
Inthe meantime, the West is acutely counting the abounding abortive ceasefires.
InDecember 2018, the Emirates reopened their Embassy in Damascus.
Meanwhile, Russia is consistently affairs advancedweapons to Iran.
It cannot be disqualified out that, consideringthat now the United States is no longerin Syria except for “showing the flag”, Iraq clearly asksRussia to adapt air raids on theISIS networks currently present amid Syria and Iraq, still abundantly operatingoutside the old “Islamic State”.
President Putin, however, will favourIran’s admission to the “Eurasian Union”, while Russia will do itsutmost to abbreviate the risks affiliated both to Iran’s cartography and to theglobal activity market.
This agency that the Russian baton will avoidlowering prices alike faced with a rather aureate bazaar of Canadian and U.S.shale oil and gas.
Furthermore, Russia additionally appetite to normalizerelations with the United States and its arbitration amid Iran and the UnitedStates is important, as able-bodied as the abstraction that anniversary activity assembly breadth hasand can advance its optimal bazaar after boundless overlapping betweensellers.
Hence President Putin will arbitrate betweenall players in the Greater Middle East, by aggravating to focus both on investmentin Syria’s about-face and in the new routes of the oil and gas bazaar inEurope. Moreover, Russia will actualize ad hoc alliances to absolute the use ofweapons in the arena and will assuredly try to assure Israel – its approaching pivotin the arena – by award a antithesis amid Sunnis and Shiites and arena theSyrian agenda as the base of bread-and-butter advice amid all of them.
Army Memo Page 13 Ten Unconventional Knowledge About Army Memo Page 13 That You Can’t Learn From Books – army memo page 2
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